wrong
bitcoin has an acquisition cost. at the moment miners costs are above $5,800. the high majority of users are refusing to sell for less then they paid for it. which also supports the long term $5,800 bottom. thats called the underlying market value layer
above that. .. then there is markets speculation layer.
yes psychology dominates if a price goes 4X higher than communities average acquisition cost. and psychology can decide when to correct that empty hype spike. but thats just the hype and fear of the speculative layer.. not the underlying layer
right now there is about 10% hype/fear speculation
in december there was 400% hype/fear speculation
but right now there is not much fear. we are not seeing 400% drops. we are not seeing price go below the long term underlying value
right now 10%+ 10%- are not hype or fear. they are just normal waves..
That is one of the best explanations I have read so far, it all makes perfect sense. We have seen a time when people where just coming into the market to speculate, fueled by fomo. The prices went out of touch with reality and after a few months of detoxing we are getting back to prices tht reflect more the underlying value.
Comparing the cost of mining of bitcoin to the current price is probably the best indicator where the real price should be, above that we get into speculative territory.