A little depressing to read, but what you wrote makes some sense, at least to me. Now for a big news, I am thinking about the ETF, cannot see anything else than that in the short or middle term. Technically the ETF would not be good news for the supporters of the original wallpaper, but it would be good for those looking for short term profits (would definitely have a positive impact on the price if it happens).
Well it might be anything. Big bank willing to invest, country willing to hold small part of its reserves in BTC (f.e. Malta which is soo positive to crypto) , Founds willing to invest in BTC, MT gox case solved by burning remaining BTC and manny more. It might not be something that everyone know it'll happend. Funny thing is that we might see it firstly on chart and then (after all insiders bought) as a news.
And my prediction is as I said "if market will act normal". We all know how manipulated it can be.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4460964.msg39964620#msg39964620. Here you can read my math speculation about bitcoin beeing pumped to 20k tommorow which was made only to show that in trading nothing is certain but people didnt get it and are posting shitcomments for 3 months that it was not pumped (hahaha). At the end it may all depend on 1 whale and his point of view - best way to earn.