if bitcoin starts rising only because of things you mentioned such as banks investing in it or countries,... then it means bitcoin has already failed and will not survive for long. the fact is bitcoin has been rising (and will do in the future) only because it doesn't need these things. because bitcoin as a decentralized currency that nobody controls already creates enough incentive for people all around the world to want to own some of it and benefit from using it. the rest are only additional pushes on an already rising price.
I agree. Bitcoin price will continue to grow due to growing demand from people willing to use it or to simply have it. But current price is way above price based on those intentions. Most of its current investors are here only to speculate. I dont say that bitcoin need those events to grow at all. I only say that BTC need good news to help with 6k support. Maybe at 4k support we wont need news to save it because we will be closer to price based on real need of BTC. So in my head i see 2 scenarios.
1- 6k support survive due to help from good news what will break downtrend and create new bubble in 2019 with top around 50-100k
2- 6k wont survive we will see drop to 4k where perhaps we will see stronger support based on BTC fundaments and next bubble not in 2019 but in 2021 with top around 200-500k
I bet at liest 90% 2017 - 2018 investors are here only for lambo. They are selling now and their supply is much higher than demand from real world need of BTC. Thats what i see looking at chart that in short term (9 months) looks bearlish to me. Perhaps at 4k support it will look more bullish.
I would love to have BTC to use it in real world but network is not ready, society is not ready, i cant use it in every day payments, I cant go shopping with BTC wallet. This improvements will push fundamental price (price based on real demand from people using BTC) but current price is above that. I dont say that i calculate that. I only see at chart that 6k looks weak to me and without help we will break it.