Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
These so far unsuccessful about 5 attempts to break below $6k don't necessarily play well for the bear case, but they do not come anywhere close to guaranteeing a bullish scenario either, because for me to feel comfortable and out of the woods, then BTC price is going to have to return comfortably into the area in which it is testing $10k resistance and even perhaps breaking through such resistance - even if such breaking through is NOT sustained, I might become a bit more comfortable that the bottom is already in, and that our current crypto winter (baby winter) is NOT going to be as bad as the 2014-2015 crypto winter (arguably dragging into 2016).
I like your analysis generally.
Most posters, as you point out, come out with proclamations based on either nothing, or misread/false facts.
Given that nobody has a crystal ball, it takes a bit of skill and experience to express a cogent scenario. Making cases for alternative price moves is nearly always the best way.
'Baby Winter' : could be possible, and it helps the case for the bottom being already in. If its a full Winter, then a bottom in the 2-3k range is more possible. I hate the idea of that, but the market often makes us take the worst tasting medicine.
Whichever way, it will be a long climb out, and patience is needed.
You would not presume that I would not quibble a bit with the tension in what you are saying, here, which seems to be referring to: 1) a variation of possible outcomes and 2) your seeming contrasting of a "baby winter" versus a "full winter" as if those were the only two scenarios.
Your statements seems to in tension.. hahahahahaha
relieve the tension... relieve the tension.
In that regard, it seems to me that there are a lot of scenario variants in between the 1) "bottom is in" versus the 2) "bottom is in the $2k-$3k arena. Even though one or the other scenario might be the most likely of scenarios, merely because another scenario might be less likely would not reasonably conclude that the less likely variant would NOT end up being the outcome (which plays well into the nobody knows idea, even while perhaps being able to agree on scenarios that are more likely but don't end up playing out even while they are more likely).