Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: Difficulty are going down - No question about it - New price target 3-4 dollars
by
skyhigh
on 16/08/2011, 07:07:27 UTC
Difficulty is lower but I don't agree with OP that it is plummeting or anything along these lines.

Difficulty dropped from 1.89 down to 1.80 or 5%. I will agree with the fact that difficulty will most likely drop some more, based on the fact that network is still losing its mining power daily. I see outflow of 50 to 100Gh per day. Network top was 14.1Th when price cracked down to sub $9 miners started leaving and are still doing so. I don't think difficulty will drop more than 3 to 5% unless something major would happen to the price in either direction. By major I mean 50%+ move.

I don't agree with OP on his new price target. At least not anytime soon, 4 to 12 weeks. Bitcoin being that volatile its hard to predict basically anything, but my personal opinion right now is, that price simply can not plummet like OP is suggesting. We could see price drop to $9.50 but that's about it for immediate future.

Last time price dropped to sub $6  it was a mix of very unfortunate things coming together at exactly the right time. It was 1 block sell of 26k at the market that dropped the price from $7.xx down to $5.75. This was the biggest 1 block market sell when price itself was already struggling. Whoever was unloading those big blocks could certainly come back and sell more, but at the moment price is very well supported on the bid side and it would take a lot of persistent selling to shake the markets like that again. Also every time we get this kind of shocks to the system, you have to realize that bitcoins are spreading from very few people to the much bigger audience, which is always a good thing. Eventually all the early adopters and maybe Satoshi himself will unload most of their holdings and bitcoins will be held by a greater number of people.

I'm currently waiting to see which way the market will decide to go. I still see the pressure at the moment is to the down side, which means $9.50 area is the key on the downside. If we get a rally and price starts to run, I'm interested in price above $14.00 to $15.00 area. All this are simple key areas from bitcoins trading history.