Let´s be realistic here, the Bitcoin trading market
is still heavily manipulated. Many of the high-volume exchanges are engaged in shady practices like
wash trading, trading against their own customers and similar stuff. As long as exchanges like
Bitfinex have that much influence on the BTC price it is hard to make the case that BTC is less
susceptible to manipulation compared to other commodities.
This is probably also the reason why they will reject this ETF application in the end - as most
of us already expected anyway.
Indeed, and I don't see things fundamentally changing by February. I get the feeling they want to see the majority of trading volume on regulated exchanges, or perhaps regulated
US exchanges.
It definitely contributues, but in the end, I strongly believe that even if you present the SEC a bullet proof ETF, they will still reject it because they might not want to contribute to even more power for Bitcoin. Don't forget that Bitcoin is a counter reflection of the regular economy; the more Bitcoin increases in value, the more the regular economy deflates.
The stock market and the bitcoin market are correlated over the long term. They've both been in raging bull markets since Bitcoin's inception. GDP as well. How is the regular economy deflating?
I don't think the SEC is necessarily against Bitcoin, either. It's not that black-and-white. I think they're much more worried about their own budget and mission than they are about promoting some government-wide conspiracy.