Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
⭐ Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
6920 then 5200 then 6500 then capitulation around 3K in january 2019
With this difficulty there's close to 0% chance for ever getting back to $3000. Yes, electricity prices * difficulty are not directly correlated to BTC price, obviously, but no miner can afford to subsidize electricity costs to BTC network. You can not operate with a long terms loss, they will simply:
a) turn off the machines, or
b) stop dumping immediately what has being mined, making permanent bottom on break-even price level.
Guess which one is more likely to happen.
Bitmain just announced that it has finally developed a better ASIC chip. It will be 42J/TH. Bitfury also announce that they have a new ASIC chip which gets 55mW/GH. https://www.coindesk.com/bitmain-ceo-announces-new-7nm-bitcoin-mining-chip. I put in some figures, and it appears at the current difficulty and 5 cents/kwH price in China, that brings the electricity cost down to less than $1,500 USD to produce 1 BTC. If the difficulty doubles, it will still be less then $3000 USD to produce a BTC. And I suspect some of the larger mining farms in China are getting a better deal than 5 cents/kwH. Therefore, the break-even floor is going to be lowered.
However, I really don't think BTC is going to go much below 5000 USD. After all, Bitcoin core just patched up a major bug that was present for almost 2 years, and the market responded like it was just noise.
