I'd be very very surprised. Going to take a couple of years most likely. 
It is a good thing that you have accepted the fact that the price of bitcoin is not going to recover as fast as many people predict, most of the predictions that I see are very similar to the subject of the thread, many people believe that bitcoin is going to recover at the end of this year and I find that to be very unlikely because there is simply not enough demand for bitcoin to recover that fast, so as you say it is probably going to take a few years for that to happen.Also, for most part of the people that hopped in last year, I am sure they will want to keep having that mindset that the same bullish move that occurred last year will occur this year to start setting a new ATH record, but things usually do not happen that way after a bear trend as there would always be huge resistances to cross as we move up unless we just see some high level of demand based on news with some squashing of sell walls as we move higher.