I think your assumptions have a certain meaning. There is a high probability that before the price of bitcoin starts to rise, it will drop very low. Of course I think that $4000 is a very low mark, but I'm not exactly sure. Two months ago, I didn't believe that the price of the ether would go down to $200, but it went down even lower.
I agree with the fact that now is a good time for the accumulation of currencies, that I actively do.