Since it sounds like KNC is no longer focused on speed to market I will most likely be dumping my Neptune pre-order as I'm not in the business of financing their next gen miner at a BTC loss which this is starting to look like from my POV. I think it's pretty safe to say Q1 delivery is now completely out of the question and a May/June delivery is quite possible so I will probably be better off buying back my BTC directly unless the difficulty acceleration magically flat-lines.
I feel the same way. Right now I can get 14.6 bitcoins for my Neptune order if I refund ($12174 inc VAT / $830), and bitcoinwisdom says if it is delivered on April 1st with a 25% increase each time (no pool fees, no electricity costs) it will recover about 13.2 bitcoins.
I think i'll wait another two adjustments and then make a decision. If the price of bitcoin goes down it'll be a no-brainer to refund and buy BTC directly.