I would say this is the main problem a lot of people always have when it comes to knowing what to invest in and what not to invest and actually, it is not that hard to know what you should be investing in. Analyzing the market you want to invest in, entails analyzing the team, their competence and how far they have gone with development and the level at which they have the vision to bring in more development in the long run. We also have to understand that product is a very good thing that you should be looking at. A project with no product is just an empty promise and you really do not want to be wasting your time on it.

Well, as long as it is playable, that still makes your destiny to be in your hands, since everything and how things end up totally depends on the decisions you make eventually. Probably we may have different perspective to destiny, but in the real sense, either you end up becoming wealthy and making huge profit from your investment all depends on the things you do now and if you do not have what it takes to be able to make those decisions based on some of the things that the OP mentioned, it would be hard to make those decisions at all.