Correct. Not all Merit Sourced sMerits are awarded within the 30 days (for multiple reasons). The deficit you calculate in your response is in practice even larger, since the regular member  awarding is not accounted for, and therefore the gap you mention is larger in practice. Unfortunately, we cannot derive the exact amount, separating once set of awarded sMerit (by Merit Sources) from the other (regular members).

My point was really that the awardable sMerit potential theoretical maximum is not likely to be reached, but rather a much lower value depending on the distribution pattern.