Yes there's 99% chance that bitcoin reaches atleast $10,000
But no one knows when...
There is 99,99% chance that bitcoin reaches at least $50,000 and stays above $20,000
... in less than 3 years
If only more people thought the way you do we would be back in bull market. The problem is that most people are this strange state where they wait for others to buy in first and give them a sign. There's a lot of money waiting to join the rally but nobody wants to be the first.