Read before posting Negative feedbacl:
I do not intend to create a FUD, nor I want to speculate. This is my logical analysis and you are welcome to question it.
The last surge in December 2017 was when mainstream media started covering Bitcoin and a "lot" of new investors/traders/oppertunist started talking about and started looking into it
October 2018 ICOs have failed, most of the ALTs are below their ICO price. That means, Now there are less Fool and people have started understanding the concept. no more Sheeps to slaughter ... Much harder to manipulate price (or atleast people are aware of it.
So, Where will the bull run come from?
As an example, Think like --- Lots of people were hodling when Bitcoin touched 20K.... But now repent doing so... 100% if Bitcoin price surges to even 9000$, they will dump knowing there will be again a correction.
This is what I analysed logically. I may be wrong. I hope I am wrong.
In terms of logic, you might be right, that using an analysis like this only uses logic without seeing it in terms of technical and fundamental analysis.
If you associate bitcoin with an ICO that fails, it seems like it's not too significant I think. Why is that? because every ICO is failing the majority due to the many scam projects that are scattered, this actually shows not because of the system of the blockchain itself. also not about the dumper that makes investors really careful to take ICO.
Bitcoin price movements tend to fluctuate and it is natural, please see from various sources, whether forex, bond, commodity, all will go up and down how a supply and demand work in trading.