if I say agree with your analysis, I will say YES, I made a thread here too https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043315.0


so I think what happened in 2018 is almost similar to 2014, if you don't believe this is my picture for an analysis for additions to this thread, hopefully useful

2012 - Bitcoin halving
2013 - go to the moon
2014 - hacking problem from MTGOX and others
2015 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2016 - Bitcoin halving
2017 - go to the moon
2018 - the bitcoin problem is usually about HACK
2019 - Bitcoin prices wake up from the downturn
2020 - Bitcoin halving
2021 - Huh You know it
http://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com