I really would not be placing any bet on the market at the moment until I start seeing a clear direction of the market and even in this case, I will always be careful for a fake breakout as the case may be as this is always the time when manipulations can actually skyrocket hugely. The market will most definitely have to break the trend in one direction and that direction is obviously what no one can actually tell and that would basically ball down on whether the bulls or the bears end up winning the fight. Your prediction graph is not stupid, it is just simply trying to observe the trend in the market and act accordingly.

Worldwide, there are many political tensions are going up and investors are already started securing their capital but for the case of cryptos it may go at any direction which is purely based on how institutional investors opt for. Because, few of them already recognized cryptos as a good alternate for gold/silver but many other yet to analyze this space .