For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition.
How can you assume that there will be a repeat of the 100x, but not assume that there will be a repeat of the 0.15x?
It'll quite possibly be neither btw.
In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops.
I don't believe he said price would stay under, just that it could be that price at point x. It's also 8-15% and 17-30% respectively.