@joulesbeef, @teukon,
A quick look at pident suggests that it is quite easy to tell when a certain pool has finished a block so I assume that the remaining problem is finding a pool which doesn't detect and ban pool-hopping behaviour. Again, I know little about the existing practical situation and am speaking purely in terms of theory and mathematics. I'm sure if I mined with a proportional pool I'd know more but I'm with simplecoin.us (which uses PPLNS) specifically so I don't have to worry about implementing pool hopping.
The "guess thing" you describe is a good idea when you have partial information.
All I meant to point out is that if one would like to pool hop with a big proportional pool and is having difficulty with the LP aspect then they can at least make some gains by using the information on the bitcoin network (if the pool is sufficiently large).
Check
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=33732.msg423533#msg423533If that guy's math is right (there might be other variables to consider), teukon might not be too wrong by assuming deepbit most of the time. I think bitHopper is already doing better than that, though, and it is still improving... but I lack the numbers to back that up.
WRT using pident method... unless it improves, I would not use it alone. They report 36% accuracy in the score system! So, much better to flip a coin.