I appreciate your outlining of scenarios that you believe to be probable and most probable, but really it seems to me that you are not really accounting for the vast array of BTC price scenarios even if you are attempting to stay in the middle of the road and you are not putting your scenarios into a kind of probability range which certainly each of us are going to frame these probabilities a bit differently. Furthermore, it seems that even your optimistic scenario ends up with John McAfee eating his dick on TV.
I am going to attempt to elaborate on your scenarios by adding more scenarios and assigning probabilities to them. By the way, I do agree with any premise that BTCs performance in 6-7 years will partly depend upon how it performs in the next 2-3 years.
BTCs price will be: First column in 2-3 years Second column in 6-7 years
Below $1k = Less than 3% Less than 1.5%
$1k to $3k = 8% to 12% 7% to 9%
$3k to $5k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$5k to $10k = 10% to 15% 8% to 12%
$10k to $19k = 15% to 18% 12% to 15%
$19k to $30k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$30k to $50k = 15% to 18% 15% to 18%
$50k to $100k = 12% to 15% 15% to 18%
$100k to $500k = 5% to 10% 10% to 15%
$500k to $1mill = 2% to 4% 10% to 15%
More than $1mill = Less than 1% Less than 5%
Im kind of pulling the above estimates out of my ass (straight); however, my point still remains that each set of circumstances has probabilities, even though in the end, we are going to arrive at ONLY one spot once we get there. Nonetheless, from our current perspective, we cannot rule out extremely bearish or extremely bullish scenarios, even though the probabilities seem to be on a kind of upwardly skewed bell curve.
In other words you believe the price will stay below 3K with probability 15% and below 5K with 30% probability for the next 3 years? I wouldn't give that much - 1-2% tops. The most important question is when the effect of mass adoption (including Wall Street companies) is about to happen? I don't think we are near that event. Not even close. So the price will continue to follow its previous pattern. For the last 4 years we had 100 fold increase between the lowest point and the ATH in 2017. It is logical that the same increase will happen in a similar time frame unless the mass adoption is near completition. But let's say that it goes much slower, say 1/4 of the speed of the previous pattern. In other words 6K->600k/4=150k is achievable price within 4 years. But let's say it is not highly probable. Then again, I think that 40K is absolutely normal price in the next 4 years.
I think he did not put much effort in exact %. He even said so. But what bothers me most in such predictions. And also in predictions from both of you. About what price are you talking about. About the ATH, of the bottom or of the average? 2018 price could be $15000 or $6000 so far. That is quite a difference.
I mentioned this in my response to ivomm, which was that I was attempting to work with ivomm's framework, which was a range of dates that approximate the next two halvenings. Sure, we could be a bit more precise in our prediction attempts if we pick a specific date rather than a range of dates, but that kind of a practice also might be getting too caught up about the price on a particular date (and being correct) rather than to merely ballpark the concept which is more likely what we do in our brains in real life anyhow when we are approximating the probabilities of events that might happen in the future. Sometimes, we might attempt to be precise, but likely a lot of times, we ballpark our views and predictions and just go on with our lives with certain frameworks in our heads (that we have to adjust with the passage of time and the learning of new information).
In my thinking, it does not matter so much about whether we end up being correct, but merely what we believe now, how we prepare based on our thoughts and the extent to which we tweak along the way while information and presumptions are likely to change along the way.