$10k should be really easily achieved if the ETF gets accepted but there are a lot of things that depend on the price of bitcoin and not just ETF. Now ETF would be a great news for the price to go up thats for sure, if people overreact it should be going up, if people do not care about it as much as we imagine they will the price will definitely go up but not insanely.

There are also whales who will change the direction to their liking. They could support the increase and if people are mad about the ETF and going up they could fuel it more and the price would reach 15-20 thousand dollar levels easily let alone $10k (this is based on what I have observed from various levels of this forum members).

If they do not want to see bitcoin going up because their money is tied to some short futures or something than they will try to keep it low as much as they can and at that point even $8k would be a miracle. Hence ETF is automatically something that should increase the price but how much depends on the market and the players.