Re: Silver shot up.

Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon

Why do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?

It's because of two effects:

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.

When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.

Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?