Post
Topic
Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
tomywomy
on 25/01/2014, 02:24:50 UTC
How much hashing power would Asicminer have to have to justify this share price?  There are 400,000 shares, so at 0.5 BTC per share we are looking at a value of 200,000 BTC.  If Asicminer discovered 8 blocks a day they'd make 200 btc a day in revenue.  That's 3.3% of the network.  Even if 50% of that was profit for distribution, that would mean 100 btc a day.  It would still take 2,000 days, or 5.5 years at that rate to generate 200,000 BTC of profit and get the shareholders buying in at this price to break-even.  

With only 4 blocks a week being found at the current hashing power, we are talking about increasing hashing power by 14 times to go from 4 to 56 blocks a week, or 8 blocks a day.  Does Friedcat have access to 14 times the data space he is currently using, 14 times the electricity, 14 times the chips?

What would it genuinely cost to maintain 3.3% of the entire hashing power?  Right now the network hash rate is about 20 PetaHash. 1% is 200 TeraHash and 3.3% is 660 TeraHash.  

This isn't just about deploying some faster technology.  The network hash rate has grown 500 times (50,000%) since May, when Asicminer ruled the mining world.  Do you really believe Asicminer can produce 50 times the hardware they had been (to end up at 3.3%) and keep that growing at the network growth rate, which has been 100% per month for many months?

I'm wondering if someone who is a believer here can quantify what they think Asicminer will be producing that will justify the value currently being assigned to these share.