a long-lasting global recession doesn't seem far off.
Really? We just got done recovering from the 2008-09 disaster, which to me doesn't seem that long ago. I'll admit that I don't exactly have my finger on the pulse of the global economy, but what signs are pointing to another recession? The stock market has been due for a correction, and a lot of stocks have dropped quite a bit lately, but that's ultimately healthy for the market. Stocks have been booming ever since 2009 and there hasn't been much in the way of a crash or correction.
The question of what happens with bitcoin if a "great recession" happens is an interesting one, since it hasn't been tested yet. I have a feeling that if a global meltdown occurs and mass unemployment is a component of that, people are going to sell bitcoin en masse and the price will probably fall significantly--and all of the altcoins that people are now hoping to get rich on today? They're going to fare even worse.
I don't see bitcoin as a safe-haven asset like gold or silver. It's way too volatile for investors looking to preserve the value of their money when markets go haywire, and if we do get an economic disaster a-knockin' at our door my bet is that metals will start rising again.
Most people are predicting a stock market crash soon. Stocks are HIGHLY overvalued right now. The stock market is nearly as overvalued right now as it was when dotcom burst (in stock vs gdp charts). Also, while it may seems like the great recession was not that long ago, recession happen regularly. This is actually the longest period of nonstop economic growth the US has ever had, so yes the US at least is very due for a recession. Add to that for the past two years since Trump took over the US has vastly expanded how much money its borrowing which is likely propping up the economy right now, with annual deficits about to hit a trillion dollars in the US to prop up the economy its only a matter of time before it crashes down, especially when you've got Trump's trade wars playing havoc with industries and global trade. Also they recently removed the regulations put in place to try to prevent the things that caused the last recession in the first place, so there's that too.
The recession will very likely be bad because the US has expanded our annual deficits so much under Trump that we're gonna already be close to what we were spending to dig ourselves out of the great recession before the next one even hits, which pretty much spells disaster for the economy, and when the US economy sinks the global economy sinks for the most part. So stocks are ready to bust and the economy is riding high on borrowed money alone. Most analysts expect a stock crash and recession in the next two years, which should line up perfectly with the next bitcoin bull run.