... the declining profitability of mining hardware which will force more coins to flow into exchanges ...
I'm certainly don't want to imply that anything else you said made sense, but this is particularly incomprehensible to me. Miners will not sell coins unprofitably. They will hoard them until they are profitable. A miner who did otherwise would be bankrupt very quickly, and thus forced out of mining, in a word, non-miners. I'm quite convinced that Impaler is not a miner. If you were, you would quickly become a bankrupt non-miner. I am a miner. I hoard until my gains allow me to multiply the size of my mining operation. In this way, I am constantly iterating to higher and higher cashflows.
Considering that you yourself posted in the thread in which that theory was presented by me and positively received by a number of people
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=414657.0your incredulity is surprising. I am indeed not a miner, I am an observer of miners and a student of macro-economics which puts me in a better position to predict the overall trends then an individual miner who thinks micro-economically. First you confuse 'declining profitability' with 'unprofitable', as you said the unprofitable miner ceases to mine and the miners as a whole stay profitable but JUST BARELY. And just barely profitable miners still have costs that need to be paid, so the percentage of your daily take that can be hoarded declines. It is as simple as that.