If you define the success as a mass adopted project, definitely even though we want to build decentralized and leaderless systems, people still like to align themselves to the leader (Vitalik, or recent example can be Sergey from ChainLink), therefore the developer is number one. I would put the community as the second, which is obviously built around charismatic founders and revolutionary ideas, and the team is an important stance too, but not crucial to the success as the mentioned two.

Unfortunately the bear market has changed the definition of "successful project" from having a good use case, tech, founder and team to the one that pumps the best...I've been working for a project myself that has the 4 out of 5 top contributors of the Gitcoin community working (TEAM) on creating a protocol that will tackle and decouple volatility from token utility (IDEA) with the founders working in the finance industry and development for over 10 years each (DEVELOPER) and yet because we aren't doing an ICO or offer bonuses/bounties as of now, even though our community is big, they seem to be uninterested of the mentioned facts.

Therefore, we all seem to define success differently, I would say you need the 4th condition and that is the sense of urgency (FOMO), which in the end seems to be still the driving force of this space....