In the absence of a black swan event - and ten years after the white paper it doesn't look like we will see one - there is only one conclusion you can make.
You mentioned black swan, the famous theme originated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book of the same name.
I read another book of Taleb's recently, "Skin in the Game," in which he mentions the Lindy effect.
According to the Lindy effect, non-perishable, non-biological things that don't have a built-in lifespan limit, such as concepts, religions, and works of literature, have an expected durability roughly equal to the amount of time that they have already survived. For example, if a Broadway show has played for 100 days, you can expect it to continue playing for about another hundred days. Or if a book is still being read after 500 years, you can expect it to continue being read 500 years from now.
By this criterion, we can expect Bitcoin to survive about 10 years.