How the does he know that?
Trace Mayer was saying that market would go to 28K, it went to 20K and stopped cold.
Now Trace is saying that 3.5K is possible, however, maybe it's already done it's bear cycle (mostly).
Nobody knows what the market would do, and if they do, ostensibly, they are not going to tell us.
Is 2k possible. maybe, but is it likely-f, NO.From where are you getting the Trace Mayer assertion of $3.5k is possible? Is that a recent statement, and what is the context of such statement?
As you have already astutely asserted, I think that both of us have recognized that there is a decent difference in the picture that might be portrayed between purporting that some BTC price movement is "possible" and ascribing "likelihood" to that same BTC price movement.
Trace...where?
here (my bad, not 3.5, but rather 3K):
https://twitter.com/TraceMayer?lang=enhe is wrong, IMHO.
Thanks for the link, Biodom.. I see that the statement is only from a few days ago... .
It seems to me that Trace is largely just exaggerating BTC price performance possibilities and attempting to look at the bright side to possible BTC price drops, which would end up weeding out froth from the space (which he views as a positive) - and Trace is likely mostly and relatively neutral to such ongoing negative BTC price performance in terms of his own BTC holdings and his costs per BTC being quite low and that he remains a long term BTC optimist (I think a self proclaimed BTC maximalist... hahahahaha) that really does not proclaim to have insight regarding the extent to which bear manipulators might be able to continue to push BTC prices down.
In other words, Trace remains amongst the most bitcoin bullish peeps in the space while being analytically (and intellectually) open enough to recognize the irrational extremes of markets that can also be explained in positive terms of shaking out weak hands.
I think that you and I largely agree, Biodom, about the low likelihood of going down to either $3.5k or $3k, but we might attribute different tentative probabilies to such negative BTC price prediction possibilities.
In that regard, in one of my earlier posts in this thread from today, I had thrown out a ballpark estimate, and I had attributed about a less than 10% to the BTC price going down to $2k in the remainder of this calendar year (2018).
Surely the odds of going down to either $3.5k or $3k would be higher than the odds of going down to $2k, but still going down to either $3.5k or to $3k in this calendar year would likely be in the less than 30% arena (based on current information).
If BTC prices break below $6k and then below $5,500, then my tune would likely change and the odds of BTC prices going down to either $3.5k this calendar year or $3k would become much higher - but we have to cross the higher BTC price thresholds of breaking below $6k and breaking below $5.5k before getting too obsessed with what seem to be currently less than 30% BTC price performance scenarios of going down to either $3.5k or $3k.