I'm a bit of a newbie so forgive me if I am totally wrong.
But from the sounds of it 1X of the currency will be given to investors in correspondence to how much they put in. 0.5X will be given to the fiduciary members and other team members. There is also an increase of coins (0.4X) each year.
Assuming an investment of all 30'000 bitcoins, with a corresponding market cap of $24million. The immediate market cap has to be $36million just to break even? Given the 0.4X increase in supply, that would confer a $9.6million per year of added market value for neutral ROI. (And not the $12million, which the team initially posted). So in terms of investment returns, I have to consider a couple issues. Firstly, will Ethereum reach neutral market cap? How big of a dilution effect will the 0.4X yearly increase of supply have? Since the founders are only accepting Bitcoin, will Ethereum outperform Bitcoin? Personally, I'm expecting Bitcoin to become ~ 10 times its value this year. On the other hand, I'm not sure whether or not Ethereum will reach a $400-500million market cap.
This is just my 2 cents. I'm completely open to other opinions.
My other question is, where do the other 30'000 bitcoins go? Do the founders have to invest into the project too or are they simply awarded the 0.5X Ethereum.
Otherwise, the project looks promising but there I'm skeptical regarding ROI.
This basically sums up my feelings. I like the idea and i like the devs, but the i think the ipo/fundraiser is way off and more importantly, i just don't see it outperforming btc this year which i also estimate to increase x10. Futhermore, i certainly dont see it outperforming some of the alt coins improving up to 300% in a week which offer nice opportunities if clever. Imo, this will be the year of btc and the mass marketable alt coins (dogecoin/ coinye and such). Advanced products like ethereium will likely get attention very late in the year or early next year. This makes tying up btc in ethereium a bad investment at this stage, but a good investment (potentially) in 8-12 months
Id like to hear opinions on this also.