i would love to actually see this "model" of yours for more information about what you actually did. but i have to say this statement of yours seems pretty baseless to me, not just because of things you considered but mostly because it is impossible to come up with a model that is that accurate within 5-7% of the price for any asset's value, let alone bitcoin which is unique in its own terms and has a much higher value than this!
in fact based on the market reaction, sentiment, the growth and adoption that bitcoin had i believe it is undervalued by at least $3000