Has anyone else developed a model for valuing Bitcoin? What number did you reach?
Context: I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500. I have been playing with some valuation models recently (have a quant/finance background) and have been measuring relationships between wallet growth, tx info like volume and fees, and transaction velocity against social sentiment over time, which got me to a "true" value of ~$5812. This isn't exactly speculation, but it's not baseless either so I'm interested in how you guys have approached the problem.
In reality the price of bitcoin is not determine by the factors and the mathematical formular you just mentioned. If traders or investors with huge volume of bitcoin just enter the market and place bitcoin at high price and some other person buy's it, We will have an upward spike in price within a twinkle of an eye.