this is my own opinion but it may help others.
I have found that all the ICOs i have invested in have launched at almost the ICO price but in a few days dipped below the ICO prices by half or 5X for some.
With this i have discovered its better not to invest in an ICO but wait for the launch and the DIP to buy it at the corrected prices made by market forces.
Its just too hard to tell the real or recommended value of a token in an ICO these days.
Hope this helps to the new investors thinking of ICOs
I think that soon the main part of the tokens will be sold on private sales. At the moment, there are few willing to participate in the ICO. In addition to fraud, there is a high risk that the project will not be able to release the product. Unfortunately, we can not always correctly assess the prospects for development. And as you rightly pointed out, it is much more profitable to buy tokens on the exchange.