The Lottery %chance table is all wrong, but I really have no intention on going into the specifics. Just seeing that any rank has more than 100% speaks for itself. We really need to be careful presenting numbers as facts.

Lottery is based on having a set of components, each of which has an equal contribution to the draw. That is not so on the forum, as each one’s content contribution is different from the next, this it cannot even begin to be compared to a lottery. Merit is not random based but essentially content based (and a few other elements). In summary, you can talk about distributions, but not chances.

Any Newbie/Jr.Member/whatnot, who has more than two neurons, and puts effort and time into his posts is likely to get merit sooner than later.