this is my own opinion but it may help others.
I have found that all the ICOs i have invested in have launched at almost the ICO price but in a few days dipped below the ICO prices by half or 5X for some.
With this i have discovered its better not to invest in an ICO but wait for the launch and the DIP to buy it at the corrected prices made by market forces.
Its just too hard to tell the real or recommended value of a token in an ICO these days.
Hope this helps to the new investors thinking of ICOs
The main cause of that is ICO's offering substantial discounts to Private and Pre Sale investors without attaching a hold period. If you avoid ICO's that are overly generous to the whales you will be less likely to get played for a sucker. Anything bigger than a 10% discount without attaching a hold period is setting itself up for a fall at the open.