Of course not. Definitely not 100%, just far more probable than not.

But in the same manner that you and I (and about 10 other perpetual bulls) had the debate about the nature of the descending triangle that had formed since 6th Jan (ultra bearish in most cases), the fact that we have now broke to the downside puts even more weight behind the classic text book bear trend case.

Indeed, we now seem stuck at the 765-770 point. The old support has become the new resistance. I am currently long but have a good mind to go short again already.......but I wont. My Stop Loss will prevent me from losing a penny and I have already done rather well tonight.