I can not disagree with you. You are absolutely right. Experience even from 5 years is a very good indicator.
the team already has experience, the more experience, the better the project will show itself in the future
Of course, the experience of the team is important, but very often young and talented professionals in the field of IT show good results.
Honestly, I first of all look at the work of the team itself, and not at their previous experience. Because quite often a lot depends on the abilities.