If there had been significant upward pressure, then we wouldn't have been stuck at ~$6.5k for so long. I predict that ~$5.5k will be "the new $6.5k" for a while, maintaining relative stability with periodic bouncing.
I suspect that we're on a long-term slow downward trend until either the next halving or until something major happens (eg. ETFs, maybe certain global events, etc.).
This is right what I'm thinking currently.
From a very basic and practical point of view:
-Adoption rate have been nothing but dropping in last year
-Usecases of btc aren't coming up. The only thing btc is still really used for is money laundring and illegal purchases
-We're at the end of a hype cycle
So there is no reason for the trend to be anything but down for months and probably years.
We need to wait for a new wave of adoption and projects, the machine is stopping right now. Next halving can be the savior but only if it peeks the interest of people with a good big FOMO.