Bitcoin was created as a reaction to the latest recession, but have always worked in a continuous uptrend.
A recession might make bitcoin a place to run to when stocks and shares go down, in that case price will go up. Or bitcoin might be what you sell to make ends meet when your stock and shares are down, in which case the price will go down.
we simply do not know how bitcoin works in a recession, it might not reach any new ATH until the recession is over.
I agree we don't know how it will work exactly, but my hunch is a recession will drag it down since it is seen as an "extremely high risk" investment. This is the category of investment most likely to tank first in a stock market crash. For the longest time there was no correlation between BTC and stock market movement but that began to change last year when Wall Street started moving in.
Bitcoin only has the potential to be a safe haven investment compared to the dollar if in response to a new crash the feds begin a new game of QE that makes the last one look like Little League. Otherwise the dollar is the go-to investment during a recession.
I like my new hat by the way, fits pretty comfortably.
I too think it will tank, but I also think it will recover faster than the stock market. What worries me is that we might get a very long crypto winter.
If we do get another spike before the coming recession I will sell most of my stash, and buy back in the recession low, which might come to be an epic low.
All spikes are temporary or they are not spikes.
How you going to know if BTC prices are going to correlate with the stock market? I never said I knew that.
How you going to know when to buy back your BTC, if you do sell "most of your stash?" I will have to make a educated guess.
By the way, if your stash is less than 1 BTC, then maybe it does not matter too much, even though you should still take incremental measures rather than betting on what seems to be a pretty weak theory, at least from what I have read from you so far. Nice try, I'm not telling you how big my stash is, and I don't know what "theory" you are referring to, The world economy goes in bust/boom cycles, that's a fact, if that's what you are referring to.
Part of the seeming craziness of your plan is that you are planning to bet BIG on further BTC down, even though BTC is currently in about a 80% correction area, but you seem to be expecting a decent amount of more down... yet the better gamble would seem to cautious about how much moar down is likely to happen when there has already been about 80% down. Bitcoin also goes in cycles, of course there will be a down after the next boom.
I am not saying that bitcoin does not go in cycles; however, there can be periods of time in which the UP outpaces the downs and even if you speculate that there is going to be more down, such down does not happen.
That occurred in late 2015 in the $200s, that occurred in mid 2016 in the $500s, that occurred several times, so your framing of the situation suggests that you believe that you will be able to get in lower.. and perhaps even lower than what actually ends up happening.
I am not saying that I know which way the BTC price is going to go or how the cycles are going to play out, but just asking you how you are going to determine at what points to get back in.
I also don't like to play around with very much of my BTC stash at all, so I remain largely a HODLer and an accumulator, so of course when the price goes down, there can be some regrets that the value of my overall stash is falling in value, but overall I am presuming UP and I don't take any chances to get tricked out of my BTC.
I think that there is something in my mindset and practice that places value in terms of the number of BTC that I can accumulate rather than the amount of fiat that I can accumulate. I have nothing against fiat, but it seems to me that fiat value will likely just naturally (or at least relative to BTC) go up by focusing on accumulating BTC.. and NOT taking BIG chances with the quantity of BTC that are put at risk (such as selling with an intention to buy back lower).