My actual mining return is nowhere near the estimates either. I've been mining at a constant rate of 5Mh/s on the Doge pool for the past 3 days and averaging approximately 25,000 Doge/day. According to Coinwarz, 5Mh/s should bring in somewhere between 36,000 Doge and 47,000 Doge per day depending on the difficulty (which has changed a bit over the past few days).
I don't know if this has been pointed out yet, but Doge has a variable block reward. If you hover over the little '?' next to the reward amount for Doge on CoinWarz, it'll explain. Basically it ranges from 0 to 1,000,000 so CoinWarz estimates the reward for each block at 500,000. That could explain the difference you are seeing because the actual reward could have been more or less. If we mined blocks which were mostly less, your coins per day would of course also be less.
-David
Yes, I'm aware of the variable block reward. However over a period of time the "luck" involved in finding low and high reward blocks should even out to an average. I believe Flound mentioned in a previous post that the average was currently at about 450,000 - so I don't think this is the cause of the problem. Right now my 24 hour "snapshot" shows 34,600 coins mined in the past 24 hours (and that's where it's been for the past 3-4 days). Whereas the estimated 24hr coins/day is should be 40350 (for 5096 Kh/s, which is more or less exactly what my rigs are churning out). So... it's getting better, but still ~15% out.