Though we have different views of the market but i think your analysis make a point! Bitcoin is really in a bad condition now compared to were it was as at December last year. I think the bottom is not here and we may need to get to next year before we see the bottom. Cryptocurrencies market is really getting to the level which many people did not expect including me. Investing into cryptocurrencies market now is becoming too risky by the day and I think the bottom is not here yet.
It depends on how much you real price Bitcoin in your mind.
If you think the price of Bitcoin is $1, then it is definitely not a good time now.
Everyones pricing for Bitcoin is different, so this question cannot be answered.
Many of us here are speculators and that is why there is always a warning that before you put money into the market do your personal analysis. My own analysis review that the bottom is around $3000 base on my MA crossing but I have come across many other speculations that have different views.