That is one excellent analysis OP, it may never happen but you do try to prepare yourself for most of the outcomes. Although i would not expect BTC lower than 1000 i would expect it (by 20% chances) at around the previous official ATH (~1300), so just in case i have some orders there waiting. I think you have missed one factor; the new futures market. As with CBOE the great bear started, it may be the opposite now. with BAKKT the great bull starts. If the big boys are officially in to make big money thay will try to destroy as many as possible before that (old hodlers). So yeah i tend to agree with your theory on this.

Also another factor not put into the analysis is the oncoming regulation. I suspect BTC will "sell its soul" to its enemy (the state) in order to gain legitimacy. If this is true then with legitimacy you have tax implications that will most propably induce stability on the price (no more big candles). unless you have a well working futures market for hedging. and this are the pieces that we are seeing played out now. (this is just a theory and not knowledge).