My honest opinion is that only 1% of altcoins will survive and prosper. The rest will just crash and burn and be forgotten. Ethereum is technically an altcoin and it's already popular. The more legitimate a project is, the faster it'll be discovered.
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I would say even less than 1% of current altcoins will survive. But others will take their place and the total number of coins will be relatively the same.
And yes, our main task is to find those project which will remain and will develop over time.