But is there any reason to think that the pattern will repeat itself again? It's just a belief, there's no fundamental reason behind this pattern, just because it happened twice it doesn't mean that it will happen again. On other markets, no one goes through the history of past cycles saying that the same price movements will happen again at a larger scale.
You are absolutely right. Without any analysis everyone is doing price analysis. There have also been traders who estimated the price of 50k or more for this year but now there is no one. I agree it is just guessing and there is nothing exact but by what way did he come to this conclusion?