I have decided to write about what have been my errors during the past bull run and subsequent downtrend till now.
First and foremost, when the time comes take some fucking profits. It doesn't need to be huge and it certainly would vary depending the individual circumstances but take some. It will make you feel better during the bear trend. It may be as low as 5%, 10%.... maybe a bigger amount if you plan to "gamble" on rebuying later in the downtrend.
How do you know when the time has come? Well, hitting a perfect top is just a matter of luck but, hitting somewhere NEAR the top is much more easy:
- You start receiving calls from nocoiners that are now suddenly interested in investing. They usually ask you for advice on what coins are a good buy... because Bitcoin is already too expensive you know....
- Exchanges can't cope with the demand. The trading engines not only lag extremely, but the verification queue for new users are weeks or even months long. Some even stop accepting new users.
- You start to feel that the rise has reached completely ridiculous levels and it should implode.... But since you already thought that a few thousands ago... why would it not keep pumping much more? Yeah, you feel like you are going to be richer than your wildest dreams!
- You start to feel not only as if you did a great investment but as if you had just hit some fucking and totally undeserved big lotto prize.
- You feel that the price has come so much higher than you would have expected (in that short timeframe) that, even when the necessary "correction" comes, the bottom will still be so high that you won't care about not having sold ANY... Because, you know, this time (tm) Bitcoin is so well known and popular that price would not decimate, maybe not even halve (and of course that $10K you never expected to be broken so soon nor so easily will act as an ultimate support in the worst case, yeah!).
I could add more signals of when the top has been reached or is very near, but I guess that's more than enough to get the idea.
This is getting long, so I think I will better be writing this as a series of posts... Some ideas I have in mind about more mistakes I did and how to improve on them are:
- Realising you are in a clear downtrend and what to do during it.
- Hedging with alts during the bullrun, near the top, and on the downtrend. Hedging with stablecoins (ie USDT).
- Managing exchanges and FIAT ramps for profit (diversify risk and get them all ready well in advance)...
- Lending
I am writing this as advice for my future self, but hope it gets useful to someone else. Will continue.