I agree.  There's not going to be any mirror repeat of the last market cycle.  There was also no real shakeout.  There was no 'capitulation' point of a heavy dump at some supposed bottom as people claim.  There was no heavy buys all at once from anyone giving any type of impression that "oh my, the price is just too cheap here and I need to jump on it!".  No miners went bankrupt.  None of this stuff happened.  

This market is still in bear market limbo and no floor or turnaround has actually occurred.  All that happened so far was some short squeezing initiated by the fraudulent exchange Bitfinex.  It could still grind lower than $3k with companies like Bitmain imploding and going out of business, or the fraud exchange Bitfinex might try to orchestrate some more pump and dumps that fizzle out.  I guess I'm saying this market is way too full of scammers now for it to behave identically to when the price was $200 and a somewhat aggregate market actually existed.  No aggregate market exists whatsoever now.  It should behave differently.

Common sense tells me that if the price was artifically rigged upwards on Bitfinex all the way from $200 to $20,000 that some of these businesses that built their business model around artificially high prices are going to create a bitcoin holocaust on the way downward as the bubble blows up.  So for me, I'm looking for some type of event like Bitfinex and their Tethers or Bitmain imploding to be the trigger for the real bottom, but who knows.