If everyone thinks it will be the same as the last period it will.
Why? because people are all anticipating the same, placing the same trades and thus making the market react accordingly.
Since we have many inexperienced traders I do believe we will go to the moon again.
Seems like a perfect way for market movers to plan opposite moves. In the last couple of months we have definitely seen that the majority anticipating on an increase is definitely not enough to make it happen. It has been extremely rewarding to hedge the sentiment of the mass so far, and I don't see it change to be honest, or at least not any time soon.
In the same way that could very well apply to the $3000 level. I'm sure that many traders before the current bounce were eagerly waiting to open shorts the moment it looked like it would test the $3000 level, but it didn't. I don't know what to expect of the current market, therefore I don't expect anything. I'll enjoy the ride up if it's up, and I'll enjoy the ride down if it's down and add more BTC to my existing holdings.