Post
Topic
Board Speculation
Re: When traditional markets fall, alternative markets fall harder
by
cellard
on 27/12/2018, 03:48:20 UTC
If you compare the dow jones, or the S&P 500 to the bitcoin chart you can notice that the stock's have been in a rally since 2009 right when bitcoin was just created, this means that the crypto currency space has never experienced a stock bear market, because stocks have been bullish since 2009 and right now they are starting to fall and I believe there will be a bigger crash than the one that happened in 2008-2009, based on this we can say that all the thousand's of bitcoin "deaths" where just mere corrections, like when bitcoin went from 30$ to 2$ when it went from 1200$ to 200$ and now from 20k to 3k all of the previous corrections where with a bullish stock market, but now the stock market for the first time since 2009 is beginning to plunge and is taking cryptos down with it, something that hasn't happened in the previous btc "deaths"

You're right. It's true that Bitcoin has never experienced a recession or depression. Nobody knows what will happen.

The thing is, the current "plunge" in the stock market is quite small compared to crashes like 2008. We're still in the range of the 2011 stock market correction in terms of volatility. Bitcoin mirrored the stock market in 2011 on the way up and the way down. I wouldn't be surprised to see a violent bounce in equities as we enter the new year, consistent with the recent bounce in BTC.

The only arguments that I see as valid aganist Bitcoin during a 2008-type clusterfuck unfolding on the near future that i think of right now:

1) Cost of electricity becomes higher due the recession. Im not sure at all how this can be the case, but let's say it gets more expensive. It would need to be a global event to have a real impact on the hashrate. Even with a big loss of hashrate Bitcoin's network is extremely secure at this point. It would be way more convenient than gold specially if you need to cross any borders.

2) Since it's still a new asset, people don't trust it enough and a big amount sells to buy whatever else.. but what is this whatever else that is neutral and decentralized other than gold? and who would be stupid enough to not have some Bitcoin in any case

So yeah, not even valid points.