These aren't the first physically-settled Bitcoin derivatives the CFTC has approved so I think it'll be easier than pushing an ETF through SEC approval.
They aren't the first, but the first in terms of having a massive potential reach. You can't possibly ignore the effects of that, regardless of how insignificant people here consider Bakkt to be, because on paper it looks pretty solid, especially if the recent articles about more interest are true. On top of that, they might not like the idea of futures anymore after what happened last year.
We'll see what the outcome will be next year, but it wouldn't at all surprise me if they don't get an approval next year.