Don't forget the halfing event sometime in 2020. If I remember correctly, about 6 months before the halfing, btc price will be locked in for the event, which means it will get interesting in Nov/Dec 2019.
I don't buy what you are saying for a second. I think it takes several months after the actual halving for the reduced new supply of coins to be felt so 2021 we will see the real effect of the halving. This has been the way it's gone for all previous halvings.