I would like to add that I'm very certain that just like in the poker world, there are traders that think they are making money but actually aren't, in the long run. There are serious poker players around who manage to break even in the long term or even lose. It's not only amateurs that lose, small time pro's can think they are better than they actually are.

I certainly don't have any data on beating the Bitcoin-market, I'm just trying out occasional trading with small volumes and even my own results are so short-term yet that it's pointless to even speculate if I'm doing well or not. But there are serious players out there and most of them aren't there for long if they don't think they can beat it.

I think it's ridiculous and ignorant as hell to think there aren't traders who beat markets in the long run, in fact it's fairly certain that there are successful traders in pretty much every market possible. I only understand a little something about trading but this is already very clear. Thinking otherwise is just as stupid as thinking that poker is a game of luck and you can't beat it.