I just saw this Twitter post which gave me another perspective.
Take a look at the lowest value of the year . This show we are in the correct trend.
I guess this is our last source of hope for this year. If this year's price falls below this chart, we will oblige to use other averages for the next year. Anyway in my opinion it is better to use this kind of analysis in crypto on a short term. The technical analysis will be more useful as the bitcoiners increase and for this moment this does not work good.